Date February 30, 2020
By Ermias Hailu
Following to the launch of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt has been “the behind the curtain” organizer, financer, and leader of the instabilities Ethiopia has been experiencing. Egypt has developed and implemented a “Grand Ethiopian Destabilization Strategy” to destabilize Ethiopia. The strategy was developed after a careful study and analysis of the internal weaknesses of Ethiopia, such as the fluid nature of EPRDF, growing dissatisfaction of the Ethiopian people on EPRDF governance, historic and current rivalry within different ethnic and religious groups, weaknesses of the current federal structure and economic disparity and poverty. Egypt’s destabilization strategy has been implemented by involving various foot soldiers such as President Isaias of Eritrea, Dr. Berhanu Nega of Ginbot 7, Ato Daud Ibsa of OLF and so many underground agents with full involvement of various media outlets such as ESAT. The Egyptian intelligence has recruited many Ethiopian agents sold out for money and their political ambitions and these agents have been working 24/7 hand in hand with Egypt and Eritrea in spying and destabilizing Ethiopia (Please refer to Prophet Daniel book referred below for details).
The central focus of Egypt’s destabilization strategy has been to weaken EPRDF by eliminating its leadership and dividing the Ethiopian people by demonizing the TPLF and the Tigrayan people which they have been able to implement it effectively. According to Prophet Daniel Abera’s book titled “When the Real World is Revealed” dated September 2014, PM Meles was killed by a “radioactive material exposure” that was planned and executed by the Egyptian’s intelligence.
The destabilization strategy of Egypt has the following goals:
- Weaken the EPRDF government and install Egypt friendly government in Ethiopia that will sign a binding water share agreement that protects so called “historical share “of Egypt (an agreement between Sudan and Egypt in 1959 with the then Egypt poppet President of Sudan, Gen. Ibrahim Abboud, allocated 78% of the Nile water by volume to Egypt). If this goal is achieved, Egypt will allow the completion of GERD as it will benefit Egypt as “free of charge” reservoir.
- In case Egypt fails to install a friendly government, it will continue to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia including its defense force(https://www.zehabesha.com/who-is-the-mastermind-behind-the-instability-and-current-assassinations-in-ethiopia/) and destroy the GERD prior to its completion. It was reported yesterday in the media that , Egypt has threatened it would use “all means available” against Ethiopia to protect the interests of its people.
Where does Egypt stand regarding to the realization of its goals?
- Ethiopia is currently not stable and undergoing political transition.
- Even though Egypt has a very high hope that you will be easily manipulated to sign a water share agreement that benefits Egypt, it could not succeed so far except the verbal commitment you gave to President Sisi in Cairo on July 11, 2018.
- However, Egypt is currently pressurizing Ethiopia through USA and World Bank to agree on the dam filling and operation agreement that could jeopardize its sovereignty over the GERD, the Abay river and its tributaries.
The Statement by the Secretary of the USA Treasury on the GERD issued on February 28, 2020 clearly reveals the following about USA:
- It has not been acting as observer (as we were told by your government) but a deal maker on behalf of Egypt
- It has not been acting in good faith and has not been a neutral facilitator. It has taken side with its “Middle East main strategic partner Egypt” and has been trying to dictate Ethiopia to sign a one-sided agreement, drafted by its Treasury Department, that could colonize and enslave Ethiopians for generations to come.
- It has arrogantly and irresponsibly declared that Ethiopia cannot fill and use the dam without signing an agreement with Egypt and Sudan. This statement clearly violates the sovereignty of Ethiopia and empowers and provides legitimacy for Egypt to work against Ethiopia.
Based on the above observations, it can be easily concluded that the USA is and will not be a neutral facilitator due to conflict of interest and Ethiopia should withdraw from the ongoing negotiation with an immediate effect.
It is expected that you are going to face the following various pressures from Egypt and its friends (including those Ethiopians sold out to serve Egypt):
- Threat on your life and bribe offer
- Delay and suspension of various financial commitments by various countries and organizations
- Aggressive blackmailing on you (to revoke your Nobel prize), the GERD and Ethiopia
- Increased internal destabilization activities particularly in Oromia and Amhara and between Tigray and Amhara
- Threat of war from Eritrea (which is part of Egypt proxy war on Ethiopia) at the border between Tigray and Eritrea under the pretext of Badme or interference on Ethiopia’s internal issues by President Isaias under the pretext of “saving Ethiopia from chaos/ laundering Ethiopia from TPLF Ideology”.
The way forward with Egypt-Take the Bull by the Horns
Even if Ethiopia agrees to sign the zero-sum agreement drafted by USA, Egypt’s destabilization of Ethiopia will continue for generations to come to make sure that Ethiopia will be always weak and under the control of Egypt so that it could not be able to revoke the agreement. Therefore, Ethiopia should not compromise on its bold and firm stand that any agreement with Egypt must be a win-win one. That is a guarantee for the future peace and stability of Ethiopia!
Regarding the various pressures that Ethiopia and you are going to face, the following are my advices:
- Enhancement of Internal stability
- Immediately work out a reconciliation agreement with TPLF by involving senior EPRDF leaders such as Ato Abadula, Dr. Kasu Ilala, Ato Addisu Legesse, Wzro Genet Zewde etc. It is high time that you chose President Isaias (the foot soldier of Egypt and with burning unforgiveness driven revenge on TPLF) or TPLF. The bible says, “What fellowship can light have with darkness?”
- Highly minimize military activity in Oromia and try to contain and solve the problem through discussion. The Military government (Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam) of Ethiopia failed due to excessive use of military against its people. Any military action on your own citizens looks the preferred option in a short term but is same as adding fuel to the fire which will further complicate and aggravate the problem.
- Campaign to rally the Ethiopian people to counter Egypt’s threats. That will be a unifying factor of all Ethiopians.
- Give more time to stabilize the country and minimize foreign trips. Egypt will try to destruct you from focusing on internal issues by using its friends that will invite you from left to right in a frequent manner.
- Last but not least the present day “Alula Aba Nega” Tegadali Syie Abraha is in town. Promote him to Defense Minister and he shall defend Ethiopia against any aggression, bridge the gap between you and the TPLF and build the confidence of the Tigray people on your government.
Prepare a Negotiation Strategy
- Develop a negotiation strategy that enhances Ethiopia’s negotiation power over Egypt and give clear objectives and maximum and minimum goals for the agreement
- In the previous negotiations, it looks to me that Egypt and USA were setting the negotiation agenda. Ethiopia as the owner of the GERD and the Origin of the Blue Nile must set the agenda, a draft agreement and must be on the driver seat throughout the negotiation. It is recommended that the Negotiation team is refreshed and further reinforced by adding more legal and technical experts including hired legal advisers from Europe (Turkey, France and Germany etc.).
- I recommend the following structure for the agreement:
- Part 1: GERD Filling Agreement- to be finalized as soon as possible
- Part 2: GERD Temporary Operating Agreement- to be finalized with Part 1 agreement
- Part 3: Water Share and Operating Agreement which replaces Part 2 agreement- a permanent comprehensive and win- win agreement with an exit clause and expiration date that must be renegotiated from zero draft every 25 years – to be agreed within the next three to five years.
- More information is provided in my article https://www.zehabesha.com/the-final-push-of-egypt-to-secure-zero-sum-water-share-agreement-with-a-destabilized-ethiopia/
Countering the threats and sabotages of Egypt
- God is on your side
- Rally all Ethiopians and mobilize black Africans in Africa and diaspora.
- Intensive diplomatic offensive at all fronts
- Egypt must know the proverb “the person who lives in glass house should not be the first to throw stones”. If Egypt bombs the GERD, Ethiopia has also the right in self-defense to bomb the Aswan dam which will wipe Egypt from the world map . Hence Ethiopia must pass a clear message to Egypt that “all options are on the table” to protect the sovereignty of Ethiopia.
- Ethiopia/Ethiopians must be ready to face short term financial and other challenges to make sure Ethiopia’s sovereignty and interest is protected in a long term.
Countering the pressures from USA
- Even though, I strongly believe that Ethiopia must further enhance its relationship/friendship with the USA, the fact is that we live in a multipolar world that limits the dominant role of USA. The EU, African Union, Great Britain, China, Russia, India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Nigeria could play a facilitation role in bringing Egypt and Ethiopia to an agreement.
- Avoid total dependence on USA and establish strategic alliance with multiple global players
God bless Dr. Abiy and Mother Ethiopia!