Date February 19, 2020
By Ermias Hailu
Following to the launch of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt has been “the behind the curtain” organizer, financer, and leader of the instabilities Ethiopia has been experiencing. Egypt has developed and implemented a “Grand Ethiopian Destabilization Strategy” to destabilize Ethiopia. The strategy was developed after a careful study and analysis of the internal weaknesses of Ethiopia, such as the fluid nature of EPRDF, growing dissatisfaction of the Ethiopian people on EPRDF governance, historic and current rivalry within different ethnic and religious groups, weaknesses of the current federal structure and economic disparity and poverty. Egypt’s destabilization strategy has been implemented by involving various foot soldiers such as President Isaias of Eritrea, Dr. Berhanu Nega of Ginbot 7, Ato Daud Ibsa of OLF and so many underground agents with full involvement of various media outlets such as ESAT. The Egyptian intelligence has recruited many Ethiopian agents sold out for money and their political ambitions and these agents have been working 24/7 hand in hand with Egypt and Eritrea in spying and destabilizing Ethiopia (Please refer to Prophet Daniel book referred below for details).
The central focus of Egypt’s destabilization strategy has been to weaken EPRDF by eliminating its leadership and dividing the Ethiopian people by demonizing the TPLF and the Tigrayan people which they have been able to implement it effectively. According to Prophet Daniel Abera’s book titled “When the Real World is Revealed” dated September 2014, PM Meles was killed by a “radioactive material exposure” that was planned and executed by the Egyptian’s intelligence.
The destabilization strategy of Egypt has the following goals:
- Weaken the EPRDF government and install Egypt friendly government in Ethiopia that will sign a binding water share agreement that protects so called “historical share “of Egypt (an agreement between Sudan and Egypt in 1959 with the then Egypt installed President of Sudan, Gen. Ibrahim Abboud, allocated 78% of the Nile water by volume to Egypt). If this goal is achieved, Egypt will allow the completion of GERD as it will benefit Egypt as “free of charge” reservoir.
- In case Egypt fails to install a friendly government, it will continue to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia including its defense force(https://www.zehabesha.com/who-is-the-mastermind-behind-the-instability-and-current-assassinations-in-ethiopia/) and destroy the GERD prior to its completion.
Where does Egypt stand regarding to the realization of its goals?
- Ethiopia is currently not stable and undergoing political transition.
- Even though Egypt has a very high hope that you will be easily manipulated to sign a water share agreement that benefits Egypt, it could not succeed so far except the verbal commitment you gave to President Sisi in Cairo on July 11, 2018.
- However, Egypt is currently pressurizing Ethiopia through USA and World Bank to agree on the dam filling and operation agreement that could jeopardize its sovereignty over the GERD and the Abay river. It has been recently reported in the media that you have said Ethiopia is ready to sign the agreement soon.
According to a new article in the media by Mada Masr on the ongoing negotiation between the three countries, the following are noted:
- Despite the Ethiopian Negotiation Team repeated claim that Ethiopia is not discussing “water share agreement”, the article stated above clearly stipulates that the main part of the ongoing negotiation between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan is a “water share agreement” in which Egypt is demanding an annual guaranteed flow of 40 billion cubic meter. Considering the fact that Abay river (Blue Nile) annual flow is 48.3 billion cubic meters, Egypt is demanding Ethiopia to guarantee 83% of the annual flow free of charge. It is very clear that Egypt is trying to deny Ethiopia using the water stored in GERD for irrigation and to get any financial benefit from the stored water in the GERD. Based on the principles of equitable use, Ethiopia could give Egypt and Sudan 50% of the annual flow free of charge. However, since both Sudan and Egypt require additional volume of water, Ethiopia could release more water under a commercial agreement. A detailed proposal on the commercial arrangement is outlined in my article: https://www.zehabesha.com/the-final-push-of-egypt-to-secure-zero-sum-water-share-agreement-with-a-destabilized-ethiopia/
- The schedule for a stage-based filling plan must enable Ethiopia to fill the GERD within 3 to 5 years. Ethiopia should not accept any further delay without any financial compensation for the revenue/profit lost!
- The drought related security the Egypt is demanding during the operation of the GERD should not be accepted by Ethiopia. The same drought that affects the Aswan dam also affects Ethiopia and Ethiopia should use the water stored in GERD to mitigate this risk. Egypt has been mitigating the drought risk using the water stored in the Aswan dam for generations and it has to continue with that in the future. As additional drought risk mitigation for the future, Egypt and Sudan could fund construction of additional cascade of dams in the Abay valley and Ethiopia could assist them to mitigate such risks using the water to be stored in those dams.
- Egypt is still unreasonably demanding for the operational link of the GERD and the Aswan dam and Ethiopia has to reject it in totality (even the 152m shut level indicated is not acceptable). The amount of water stored in the Aswan dam is a function of the amount of the Nile river in-flow rate to the Aswan dam from Sudan( which is under the control of Sudan), the amount of discharge from the Aswan dam( which is under the control of Egypt), evaporation from Aswan dam and underground seepage rate from the Aswan dam. Sudan has already built the Merowe dam on the Nile and plans to build additional cascade of dams. Therefore, since none of these factors are under the direct control of Ethiopia, it is unrealistic and unreasonable for Ethiopia to agree any linkage of the GERD and the Aswan dam except giving assurance to release the agreed amount of annual volume flow of water from the GERD as discussed above.
- It must be noted that Egypt is pressurizing Ethiopia to make a strategic deal at a time where Ethiopia is not stable and undergoing political transition, with a very weak negotiation position. Hence, the Ethiopian government must think twice before making a rushed strategic compromise and historic error that could discredit the sacrifice of out martyrs of the Ethiopia- Egypt war in 1874 to 1876 and that could enslave our future generations.
- Ethiopia should not be tempted to accept one time few billion-dollar grant from USA, World bank or from elsewhere as a deal sweetener to sign a rushed agreement. As outlined in my article referred above, Ethiopia could get billions of dollars from Egypt annually as a compensation to allowing Egypt to use Ethiopia’s water share.\
God bless Dr. Abiy and Mother Ethiopia!